CSD19 Integrative Foresight and Forecasting-------DEM0010490

Aim

1. To integrate super forecasting with foresight methodologies to provide probabilistic, but non-linear, judgments on emerging, novel and convergent biothreats that either target directly or use as a primary vector, animals, plant and fungi (APF) to protect national security. 2. To define and establish archetypal system trajectories across Defra's biothreat landscape and threshold(s) for anticipatory action. 3. To test and examine how current decision-making structures respond to threshold breaches and super forecasting more broadly as part of the overall (Defra) biothreat assessment concept.