National Monitoring Program Feasibility Study

Study into the feasibility of a programme of national sample-based assessments for the purpose of understanding and monitoring learner attainment and learning standards at a national level, in a way that accords with the Curriculum for Wales Framework (including the Curriculum for Wales Progression Code, Statement of What Matters Code, and associated guidance), and the new Framework for school evaluation, improvement, and accountability.

The Welsh Government is seeking to deliver a national programme of sample-based assessments to monitor learners’ attainment in the Curriculum for Wales (“national monitoring programme”) to provide national information on learning standards. We are seeking to pilot such assessments within the 2025/26 academic year. We are procuring a feasibility study to develop fully costed and detailed options for the creation and delivery of this national monitoring programme.

Curriculum for Wales is being taught in schools and settings across Wales up to year 6 and half of year 7 in September 2022. In September 2023 it will roll out to all secondary schools in respect of years 7 and 8, and will then roll out year by year until it includes year 11 in September 2026. Curriculum for Wales does not contain a national standardised assessment framework. Schools must design their curriculum in line with the Curriculum for Wales Guidance including appropriate assessment arrangements that support learner progression.

End of Key Stage assessments, which previously provided information on attainment in the core subjects, have been phased out due to their inconsistency with the Curriculum for Wales. In line with the recommendation of Successful Futures, the Welsh Government is pursuing a national monitoring programme as the means of monitoring learner attainment and discerning learning standards at a national level over time.

In July 2022, the Government Social Research Service published the final report of the scoping study undertaken by Arad Research and the Open University on the evaluability of the Curriculum and Assessment reforms. Recommendations included the development of a national monitoring programme for learner attainment and considerations for its development. The Welsh Government’s response committed to considering these recommendations in the development of the Curriculum for Wales Evaluation Plan. The Evaluation Plan has been published, setting out our long-term approach to evaluation and monitoring, including our ambition to develop national monitoring.

The feasibility study must answer a series of detailed questions regarding the design, development, delivery, and operation of the national monitoring programme which will be set out in the specification. It must develop costed proposals for the programme which meet the requirements set out by the Welsh Government. These requirements include principles that should underpin the development of the programme; and requirements regarding what should be assessed and the outputs that the programme must deliver. National monitoring will form one part of the broader school information ecosystem – the holistic range of information about schools that we will use to inform local, regional, and national improvement. Therefore, this study will need to acknowledge and work within the broader context of developing policy on the creation of a new school information ecosystem (including how the outputs of national monitoring can integrate with other sources of information in this ecosystem and as part of the broader Evaluation Plan) and take a flexible approach that allows iteration of the approach to discerning learning standards in line with policy development.

Given the breadth and complexity of the study, suppliers may wish to consider consortium arrangements when responding to the invitation to tender.