Employment effects of the National Living Wage

The Low Pay Commission (LPC) invites tenders for research using novel methods or data to analyse the impact of recent increases in the minimum wage. We are specifically interested in the impacts on employment (and hours), but research may cover a range of other outcomes.

The Low Pay Commission is a non-departmental public body that advises the government about the National Minimum Wage (NMW), including the National Living Wage (NLW) and the minimum wage rates for young workers and apprentices. We are responsible for evaluating the effects of the NMW and NLW and making recommendations on future rates. To carry out these functions, our work involves:

• carrying out extensive research and consultation with employers, workers and their representatives and taking written and oral evidence from a wide range of organisations;
• analysing relevant data to understand the state of the economy and labour market and the impact of the minimum wage;
• commissioning research projects into these questions.

The LPC carries out its own descriptive and econometric analysis of the labour market and the impact of minimum wage increases, including using econometric methods . However, some of the key data sources we rely on, including the Labour Force Survey, have suffered from data quality issues since the pandemic. We are therefore looking for research that would use alternative data sources and/or develop novel methods to provide robust quantitative estimates of the impact of increases in the minimum wage since 2019.

The estimated maximum cost of the contract is £80,000 (exclusive of VAT; £96,000 including VAT). We recognise that proposed projects may vary significantly in their scale and resource requirements and anticipate bids in the range £50,000 to £80,000.

This procurement is for research delivering its final findings in September 2027 with interim findings in September 2026. If your proposed project could be completed to a shorter timeframe, we strongly encourage you to submit a bid under LPC 2025/05 (Open call for research on the minimum wage).